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Title: | Probabilistic Forecasting for Daily Electricity Loads |
Speaker: | Professor Qiwei Yao, London School of Economics and Political Science |
Time/Place: | 15:00 - 16:00 RRS905, Sir Run Run Shaw Building, HSH Campus, Hong Kong Baptist University |
Abstract: | Probabilistic forecasting of electricity daily loads is of fundamental importance for effective scheduling and decision making in the increasingly volatile and competitive energy markets. A critical challenge is to deal with the nonstationarity at daily, weekly and monthly levels. Working with EDF (Electricity of France), we recast the problem as a curve-to-curve regression. The newly proposed probabilistic predictors for curves outperform several state-of-the-art predictive methods in terms of forecasting accuracy, coverage rate and average length of the predictive bands. The predictive quantile curves provide some risky scenarios which are important for the electricity supply risk management. |
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